PreviousNext

Imagining, and Measuring, the Unimaginable

At the Center for Architecture, On View by • 03/05

Humans have been studying earthquakes scientifically for about 2,000 years, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory geophysicist Dr. Klaus Jacob says, ever since Han Dynasty-era polymath Zhang Heng invented the first seismometer so that the Emperor would know about distant earthquakes before the news reached him by messengers on horseback. Now we have multiple networks, like the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology, the U.S. Geological Survey, and overseas equivalents, linked and sharing information. Knowing a quake is likely doesn’t equate to predicting its timing, but the state of knowledge about locations, depths, and magnitudes helps the design and construction professions prepare for these probabilistic events and mitigate damage.

Jacob may be better known in recent years as the expert who presciently warned New Yorkers about the risks of flooding, proven accurate in 2012 by Superstorm Sandy. He’s also the first-call seismologist for anyone needing detailed analyses of the risks of a major quake in New York, an event that strikes with far less warning. Jacob spoke at the inaugural panel of the Design for Risk and Reconstruction (DfRR) Committee in October 2011; his return engagement on the first DfRR panel linked with the “Considering the Quake” exhibition reminded the audience that, although we have come to know a great deal about these events, “it’s good… not to talk about the last, but the next disaster.” Jacob and his colleagues know more about these contingencies than most people would want to, at least if they ever wanted to sleep again.

There were 141,478 seismic events detected worldwide between 1960 and 2008 by the Global Seismographic Network, Jacob reported, distributed in a clear nonrandom pattern that has provided information about the movement of tectonic plates and the energy released when they grind together. The edges of the Pacific plate have the highest concentration of events and the severest events, but the Northeast has had multiple quakes over recent decades as well, mostly smaller ones with magnitudes of 5.0 or below, along very old cracks in the crust (particularly the Ramapo Fault system across eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and Upstate New York). New Yorkers felt the 2011 quake that was epicentered near Richmond, Virginia; East Coast geology makes quakes perceptible and hazardous hundreds of miles from their epicenter, not as localized as western quakes involving softer rock. “It’s a very low rate compared to what happens on a plate boundary, but it cannot be ignored,” he said.

Studies show “a probability within 50 years, sort of a minimum lifetime of a reasonable structure…. By the wisdom of the community in the United States, we’ve decided that 2% in a 50-year chance is sort of an acceptable level to describe the hazard,” Jacob explained. The relative rarity of East Coast quakes, he added, means the records (instrumental data plus anecdotal reports back to 1627) yield information that let us extrapolate a risk of one 6.5-magnitude quake in about 1,000 years, or one 4.9 about every 100 years, with considerable play in the figures. Severe quakes are rare here, not impossible, and the larger exposure area means the hazard is actually proportionately higher, despite the greater absolute rate in the West. This context, Jacob said, explains Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s concerns about hazards to the Indian Point nuclear power plant, built in an era when less local information was available, but now “declared the seismically most vulnerable reactor in the United States.” Earthquakes tend to trigger submarine slides and tsunamis, he added, amplifying concerns over surges like Sandy. Closing with an estimate of the exponentially increasing amounts of debris that would result from quakes of various magnitudes, Jacob exhorted architects to “make sure that this debris is minimized. That’s your task,” achievable only over decades or centuries as the city replaces its building stock.

Sissy Nikolaou, Ph.D., PE, M.ASCE, of Mueser Rutledge and the Geotechnical Extreme Event Reconnaissance (GEER) project, presented dramatic video and still images, including recent material from the Greek island of Cephalonia, where quakes destroy buildings about every 30 years, as well as more publicized events like the 1995 quake in Kobe, Japan. She outlined several prevalent misconceptions (e.g., that the harder rock of the New York area, compared to the younger crust of the West Coast, makes us quakeproof; what it does is transmit shock waves further) and clarified important distinctions, particularly between hazard and risk (the latter involves the economic value of assets destroyed and can be massive in places like New York, which produces 9% of the U.S. economy, even if physical seismic hazard is only moderate). Assessing vulnerability to “the three D’s” of downtime, damage, and death, calls for some counterintuitive recognition, she noted, particularly that “building stronger is not always better.” Protective strategies need to consider soil structure, liquefaction risk, and resonance, ensuring that buildings do not resonate at similar frequencies; a building atop deep, soft deposits is a worst-case scenario, and the Mets’ Citifield – built, she said, on “100 feet of mushy stuff, that when you shake it, behaves like Jello in a bowl” – is consequently designed to an extraordinarily strict seismic standard. Chinatown buildings, too, sited above the Collect Pond once used for potable water, require extra-deep foundations.

Ramon Gilsanz, PE, of Gilsanz Murray Steficek, described seismic events through a musical metaphor: if an earthquake resembles the score, the soil is the player transmitting the vibration, and a building is the instrument that plays it. Engineering approaches to minimizing these destructive performances can recognize a building’s distinctive resonance and plan for damping the “sound” in any of several ways. Chilean engineers, working in a highly vulnerable zone, strengthen buildings with interior shear walls; the Japanese approach is to try to keep the instrument from being played at all by isolating a building’s base from the soil with enormous (and expensive) shock absorbers, aiming to minimize damage enough for nearly immediate occupancy. In the U.S., a cost-effective approach prevails, allowing structures to deform and designing only for life safety, not prompt reoccupancy. Much of the worst damage, Gilsanz noted, occurs after a quake, not during it: in the 1906 San Francisco quake, only 3-5% of the buildings were directly damaged, but fire caused far worse destruction.

SUNY Buffalo civil-engineering chair Andrew Whittaker’s presentation (titled “Won’t Happen Here,” but making no such assertion; a question mark appears implicit) went into detail about the consequences when it does happen. Having lived through two quakes personally in California in 1989 and 1994, he is under no illusions that it is strictly a “left coast problem”. Earthquakes here are inevitable (though perhaps not in any given lifetime), resilience is essential, and the most pressing risk involves “non-engineered building structures,” built before codes were in place or not designed up to code. In New York, unreinforced masonry (URM) is the norm in Federal Era buildings, row houses built between the 1830s and about 1940, many schools, and even firehouses (the risk that firefighters’ own buildings could collapse and trap fire vehicles during a general disaster, he noted, calls for urgent attention). Quake-prone New Zealand, he noted, “substantially underestimated the hazard” before the 2011 Christchurch event, and many URM buildings were damaged to the red-tag level, requiring demolition. Engineered buildings’ protective attributes include lateral resistance, lateral load paths, continuity in floor plates, and redundancy; the Applied Technology Council’s ATC-58 standard, on which Whittaker participated, allows engineers and architects to design for specific levels of risk. An easily overlooked consideration, he added, is the risk from nonstructural components (e.g., ceilings, partitions, elevators, and internal goods), simply “stuff” that also breaks and moves, and that constitutes about 98% of losses in quakes. “Keep in mind,” he noted, “that costs associated with business interruption often far exceed the repair costs.” Imagining a 5.8-magnitude quake striking Manhattan, Whittaker described a staggering cascade of fires, homelessness, impacts on physical infrastructure and social systems, and loss of life.

The Q&A segment included an important and often-overlooked scenario, in a question by DfRR Co-chair Joan Capelin: the phenomenon of induced earthquakes, including those resulting from hydraulic fracturing for fossil fuels as well as quarrying. Both practices have been associated with seismic events, panelists noted, and the fluids pumped into the ground for fracking create additional toxic hazards underground. “When you mess around with Mother Earth,” Jacob summarized, “it often comes around to haunt you if you don’t understand the process.”

Event: Are We on Shaky Ground? Earthquakes and New York City
Location: Center for Architecture, 02.27.2014
Speakers: Dr. Klaus H. Jacob, Geophysicist, Columbia University Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory; Dr. Sissy Nikolaou, PE, Senior Associate and Director, Geo-Seismic Department, Mueser Rutledge Consulting Engineers; Ramon Gilsanz, PE, SEI Fellow, Founding Partner, Gilsanz Murray Steficek (GMS) and Chair, NYC DOB Structural Technical Committee responsible for the 2014 NYC Building Code revision; Dr. Andrew E. Whittaker, Director, SUNY Buffalo (UB) Multidisciplinary Center for Earthquake Engineering Research and Chair, UB Department of Civil, Structural & Environmental Engineering
Organizers: Center for Architecture, AIANY Design for Risk & Reconstruction Committee, and the New York–Northeast (NYNE) Chapter of the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI)

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>

Archtober 2014
Editor’s Note Editor's Note
“Architecture comes from the Greek word arkitekton, meaning we’re going to be about 120% over budget.” Robert De Niro’s engaging speech mixed humor with a vast understanding of the standards of architecture, quoting the three Vitruvian qualities of “solidity, usefulness, and beauty.”
Heritage Ball 2014: Talkin’ to the Architects Reports from the Field
Friends of LaGuardia President Lawrence Goldberg served as master of ceremonies at the neighborhood association's annual dinner.
Hawkish about LaGuardia Rhetorically Speaking
Speakers at "Issues in Civic Visioning: A Town + Gown Event" at the Center for Architecture.
New York City: Open for Building Policy Pulse
NOMA Design Excellence award winner and AIA New York Chapter member Pascale Sablan, AIA, (center) pictured with (l-r) Venesa Alicea, AIA; Jack Travis, FAIA; 2016 AIA President-elect Russell Davidson, FAIA; and nycobaNOMA Past-president Tonja Adair, AIA.
NOMA: For the LOVE of it Reports from the Field
Eeva-Liisa Pelkonen, Associate Professor, Yale School of Architecture; Jeanne Gang, FAIA, Founder and Principal, Studio Gang Architects; Cara Cragan, Director of Architecture, Helsinki and Abu Dhabi, Solomon R. Guggenheim Foundation; Nancy Spector, Deputy Director and Jennifer and David Stockman Chief Curator, Solomon R. Guggenheim Foundation; and Joel Sanders, Professor Adjunct, Yale School of Architecture
To the Finland Website: To Get an Icon, Don’t Strive for One At the Center for Architecture
Brad Cloepfil, AIA, founder of Allied Works Architecture, delivered this year's annual Arthur M. Rosenblatt Memorial Lecture organized by the AIANY Cultural Facilities Committee.
Allied in Architecture and Arts At the Center for Architecture
SculptureCenter Executive Director Mary Ceruti and Andrew Berman, FAIA, guided architecture enthusiasts through a tour of the recently-opened SculptureCenter in Long Island City.
Sculpting the Center Reports from the Field
Architect and urbanist Jaime Lerner was joined by former NYC Department of Transportation Commissioner Janette Sadik-Khan.
Sustainable Innovation in Urban Planning: Jaime Lerner’s Visionary Success Reports from the Field
One mile of rock, thousands of feet deep, is being excavated out of Manhattan, carted through Queens to Pennsylvania, to make way for MTA’s East Side Access.
Assessing MTA’s East Side Access Reports from the Field
Szenasy, Design Advocate
Oculus Quick Take: Szenasy, Design Advocate Podcast
One group of UASDC students presents their garden design featuring a series of outdoor rooms accommodating different activities along an axis.
High School Students Plant the Seeds for Change in a Local Playground and Garden At the Center for Architecture Foundation
1 - Not Just Another Pretty Façade
In the News In The News
Names in the News Names in the News
11.10.14: Call for Entries: 2014 AIANY Committee on the Environment (COTE) Awards
New Deadlines New Deadlines
“New Practices New York 2014” through 01.17.15
On View: At the Center for Architecture At the Center for Architecture
10.15.14: Introduced by AIANY 2014 President Lance Jay Brown, FAIA, Jeffrey Inaba, Assoc. AIA, led Archtober enthusiasts on a Building of the Day tour of Red Bull Studios, a slick 38,000-square-foot music studio/gallery/corporate office.
Sighted Sighted
Classifieds Classifieds
NYC Department of Construction (DDC) Commissioner Feniosky Peña-Mora spoke about the search for a new Chief Architect at the Center for Architecture.
Calling all Architects: The NYC Department of Design + Construction Searches for a Chief Architect Editor's Note
Joseph Bresnan, FAIA, and Adrienne Bresnan, FAIA, received the AIANYS Fellows Award from AIANYS Immediate Past-President Ray Beeler, AIA, and AIANYS Executive Director Georgi Ann Bailey, CAE, Hon. AIANYS
Saratoga Sings Rhetorically Speaking
Each winner of the "New Practices New York 2014" competition designed a site-specific installation for the Center for Architecture's double-height storefront.
New York Reinvests in the New: New Practices New York 2014 At the Center for Architecture
Architects and representatives from the city’s library systems and city agencies discussed innovative ways of overcoming the design and financial challenges associated with holding UPK in branch libraries.
Branching Out: Next Steps for Universal Pre-Kindergarten Expansion in NYC Libraries Policy Pulse
Lynne B. Sagalyn, Earle W. Kazis and Benjamin Schore Professor of Real Estate and Director, Paul Milstein Center for Real Estate; Alexander Cooper, FAIA, Founding Partner and CEO of Cooper, Robertson & Partners; Carl Weisbrod, Chairman, NYC Planning Commission; Herbert Sturz, former Chairman, NYC Planning Commission; and Carol Willis, Founding Director, The Skyscraper Museum
Naughty, Gaudy, Bawdy, Sporty, and Gone: Times Squares Old and New At the Center for Architecture
Tango Housing in Sweden by Moore Ruble Yudell Architects & Planers with FFNS Architects
Aging in Housing At the Center for Architecture
Martistella Casciato and Tom Avermaete presented on "Casablanca Chandigarh: A Report on Modernization" at the October 2014 Oculus Book Talk.
Oculus Book Review: Casablanca Chandigarh: A Report on Modernization At the Center for Architecture
On 09.18.14, the AIANY Architecture Tour Committee and Classic Harbor Line organized a Featured Boat Guide tour down the Hudson River and Arthur Kill into Freshkills Creek
Ride Down Freshkills Kill Reports from the Field
Stephen Cassell, AIA, LEED AP, and Kim Yao, AIA, partners at Architecture Research Office (ARO) were this year's Oberfield Lecture speakers.
Above All, Research At the Center for Architecture
Teresa Harris, Ph.D., Project Coordinator, Marcel Breuer Digital Archive, Syracuse University; John Arbuckle, Assoc. AIA, Co-chair, AIANY Historic Buildings Committee; Mary Beth Betts, Ph.D., Director of Research, Landmarks Preservation Commission; Donald Friedman, P.E., President, Old Structures Engineering; Nancy A. Rankin, AIA, LEED AP, Principal, John G. Waite Associates; and and Nathan Hoyt, FAIA, Architect
History is in the Details At the Center for Architecture
Families re-imaging a “family-friendly” NYC through play at James Rojas’s planning activity using maps of the five boroughs.
Family Festival Brings Hundreds to the Center for Architecture At the Center for Architecture Foundation
1 - A Teardrop-shaped Building Designed to Fit a Triangle
In the News In The News
Names in the News Names in the News
11.10.14: Call for Entries: 2014 AIANY Committee on the Environment (COTE) Awards
New Deadlines New Deadlines
“New Practices New York 2014” through 01.17.15
On View: At the Center for Architecture + About Town About Town
10.01.14: Ennead Architects kicked off Archtober’s Building of the Day series with a tour of the Public Theater, exploring the history of the building from its origins as an institution for learning, to its period as the home of the Hebrew Immigrant Aid Society, and its final chapter as a hub of theaters.
Sighted: Archtober Edition Sighted
Classifieds Classifieds
Stop by the Center for Architecture and fill your October calendar with architecture and design-related events.
Happy Archtober! Editor's Note
On 09.23.14, the New York League of Conservation Voters held a "City Council Environmental Roundtable." Environmentalists in the City Council addressed the crowd.
Roundtable Roundup Rhetorically Speaking
AIANY members, staff, and friends marched alongside other allies and advocates representing an enormous range of disciplines and priorities.
Power of the People Reports from the Field
On 09.24.14, a slew of elected officials and community groups gathered in LaGuardia Park, across the street from the Center for Architecture, to protest NYU expansion on public open space.
Taking On Housing Preservation Policy Pulse
Ed Mazria, AIA, founder and CEO of Architecture 2030 (right), shared the stage with Susan S. Szenasy, Hon. AIANY, Editor-in-Chief and Publisher of Metropolis magazine and AIANY 2014 President Lance Jay Brown, FAIA, during the program's Q&A session.
Architecture 2030: Design Matters At the Center for Architecture
Bronze, Gold, and Silver winners of the 2014 North American Holcim Awards: David Benjamin, The Living; Water Pore Partnership; and BIG - Bjarke Ingels Group.
Holcim Awards 2014: “Move Over Pritzker” Reports from the Field
The Center for Architecture hosted Susan S. Szenasy, Hon. AIANY, in conversation with journalist John Hockenberry.
Oculus Book Review: “Szenasy, Design Advocate” At the Center for Architecture
A full house at the Center for Architecture's "Global | Local" program, organized by the AIANY Global Dialogues Committee.
Glocal | Lobal: Multinational Architecture and Building Locally Across the Globe At the Center for Architecture
Shifting Behavior_Title_edit
Energy Efficiency’s Human Dimension At the Center for Architecture
Neighborhoods such as the South Street Seaport Historic District are great places to “read” the facades, details and forms of buildings, revealing the histories of buildings – their function, style, architectural technology of the day and more.
Streetscapes in the Seaport At the Center for Architecture Foundation
1 - Law and Order
In the News In The News
Names in the News Names in the News
10.31.14: Call for Nominations: The Beverly Willis Architecture Foundation’s Built by Women NYC (BxW NYC)
New Deadlines New Deadlines
“New Practices New York 2014”
Opening 10.01.14
On View: At the Center for Architecture + About Town About Town
09.18.14: NYC Department of Design + Construction (DDC) Commissioner Feniosky Peña-Mora discussed the scope and breadth of DDC’s portfolio of public buildings and infrastructure in a talk organized by the AIANY Public Architecture Committee.
Sighted Sighted